Uganda has closed the Third National Development Plan (NDP III) with a 60% achievement rate, missing the target of 80%. Government leaders cite Covid-19, global disruptions, and weak discipline in implementation as reasons for the shortfall.
Implementation Challenges During Uncertainty
Ramathan Ggoobi, the Permanent Secretary and Secretary to the Treasury, presented the closure of NDP III, noting that the plan started amid great uncertainty. President Museveni signed the plan’s foreword during the national lockdown.
“NDP III was written and implemented in an environment of huge uncertainty. At the peak of Covid-19, about 40% of the National Budget was cut and reallocated to health and security to keep Ugandans alive,” Ggoobi explained.
The pandemic, alongside global and regional conflicts, hindered revenue mobilisation. This forced the government to divert resources away from development spending, impacting overall performance.
Weak Programme Ownership and Lack of Discipline
Despite these challenges, Ggoobi stressed the importance of aiming for 100% implementation, rather than settling for 60%. He pointed out that the government should have set realistic targets.
“We should always target 100%. If we can’t implement it, then don’t put it in the plan,” Ggoobi said, urging planners to revise future goals.
The review also revealed weak ownership of the NDP III across government. Many key programmes failed to attend the final review meeting. Notable absentees included agro-industrialisation, tourism development, and human capital development programs.
“The first major challenge we have is seriousness and discipline. We can write many documents, but if we don’t take serious things seriously, we shall not transform Uganda,” Ggoobi added.
Transition to Programme-Based Planning
NDP III marked a shift from sector-wide to programme-based planning. This change aimed to break silos and focus government efforts on common results. While the shift improved coordination, Ggoobi acknowledged the government’s over-ambition. The plan set too many indicators and unrealistic targets.
“We set very high targets and scope. If we achieve 80%, we are okay. Why put in place targets we can’t achieve?” Ggoobi asked.
The experience from NDP III has influenced adjustments under NDP IV, such as reducing the number of indicators and tightening performance accountability.
Key Lessons and Adjustments for NDP IV
The lessons from NDP III include the need for well-defined performance indicators, realistic targets, and stronger coordination. Ggoobi also emphasized the importance of better monitoring and reporting systems, improved national statistics, and local government involvement.
Parliament’s Role in Enhancing Oversight
Wilson Muruli Mukasa, representing the Speaker of Parliament, stated that NDP IV would undergo more rigorous parliamentary scrutiny. Parliament plans to increase oversight of ministerial policy statements, post-budget monitoring, and tracking major projects to ensure public spending delivers tangible results.
Parliament is also considering reforms to its committee structure to better align with the programme-based planning model introduced under NDP III and strengthened under NDP IV.
Concerns over Borrowing and Service Delivery
Parliament raised concerns about Uganda’s continued reliance on borrowing for development. The gap between national ambitions and domestic revenue mobilisation remains too wide and unsustainable. Procurement bottlenecks, weak absorptive capacity, and ongoing project delays have hindered service delivery and eroded value for money.
NDP IV: A Path for Coordinated Action
Kintu Anthony Mwanje, head of the Private Sector Development (PSD) and Development Plan Implementation (DPI) Programmes, warned that NDP IV will only succeed if the DPI programme enforces coordination. Under NDP III, weak follow-through and fragmented efforts diluted results, with ministries, agencies, and local governments often working in isolation.
“The DPI programme is designed to act as the superintendent of the plan, ensuring that all actors move in the same strategic direction,” Mwanje said.
Without central coordination, investments risk becoming disjointed and ineffective. For NDP IV to succeed, the DPI must be respected and operationalized, ensuring all programmes move toward a cohesive development path.
NDP IV Targets and Implementation Plans
NDP IV, approved by Parliament in January and signed into law by President Museveni in March, aims to raise the revenue-to-GDP ratio from 14.5% to 18.3%. It also seeks to reduce external financing of the budget from 47.7% to 12.7%, improve the budget transparency index from 59 to 80, and achieve 100% of planned results.
Focus on Tougher Discipline Under NDP IV
NDP IV includes stricter discipline in plan implementation. The government has finalised Programmed Implementation Action Plans (PIAPs) to operationalize the new plan. With these adjustments, NDP IV aims to address past shortcomings and ensure that Uganda’s development efforts are more focused and coordinated.
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The closure of NDP III offers valuable lessons as Uganda prepares for NDP IV, aiming for more effective implementation and tighter oversight to ensure that national development goals are met.
