Oil prices fell on Monday. Abundant global supply outweighed fears from the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Brent crude futures dropped 50 cents (0.8%) to $60.26 a barrel by 0752 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slid 53 cents (0.9%) to $56.79 a barrel.
Markets were volatile in early Asian trading. Investors assessed Venezuela’s political crisis and its possible effect on oil supply. However, they quickly saw that near-term risks remain low.
President Donald Trump confirmed the U.S. detained Maduro in New York. He said Washington would take temporary control of Venezuela. He also stressed that the embargo on Venezuelan oil remains fully in place.
Even so, analysts agree Venezuela’s current output is too small to move global oil prices much. Kazuhiko Fuji of Japan’s trade research institute noted U.S. strikes caused no damage to oil infrastructure. “Even if exports are disrupted,” he said, “over 80% go to China, which has ample reserves—so the market won’t strain.”
Top officials in Maduro’s government still hold power. They called the detentions a “kidnapping” and vowed unity. Yet analysts warn a full regime change could eventually lower oil prices by unlocking new supply.
Venezuelan production might rise by a few hundred thousand barrels per day by late 2026, Raymond James said. However, UBS strategist Giovanni Staunovo cautioned that “any meaningful recovery in output will take considerable time” due to aging infrastructure.
Trump also threatened a second strike if Maduro’s allies refuse to cooperate. He suggested possible interventions in Colombia and Mexico over drug trafficking. Additionally, he hinted at action in Iran after recent protests. These moves have heightened geopolitical tensions.
Still, OPEC+ decided Sunday to hold output steady. This reinforces market stability. As Helima Croft of RBC Capital noted, “All bets are off in a chaotic power shift like Libya or Iraq.”
For now, fundamentals—not headlines—drive oil prices. With high inventories and modest demand growth, traders stay focused on supply-demand balance. Unless Venezuela’s output surges or conflicts spread, oil prices will likely stay range-bound in early 2026.
